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Monday, February 8, 2010

Bracketology: for Feb. 8th, Pairwise explained.

OK folks, this is my first installment of bracketology NCAA hockey style. First things first, the college hockey selection criteria is vastly different than any other sport. There are only 16 teams that gain entry into the tournament. There are 6 conferences in college hockey and all 6 have an automatic qualifier into the tournament which leaves 10 at large bids. College hockey uses a system called the Pairwise rankings, which ranks the teams across the country on certain criteria. They take into account a teams overall record, their RPI ranking, and their strength of schedule. Along with those each team is compared against one another in the top 25 of the rankings. Those teams are called TUC's, other wise known as teams under consideration. Each team is compared against the 24 other teams that are listed as TUC's in these categories: RPI, head to head record, record against TUC's, and record against common opponents. You get a point for each comparison you win and can be crucial in determining a teams seeding in the tournament. Here is the current PWR:

Rk Team PCWs W-L-T Win % Rk RPI Rk
1 Miami 24 20-4-6 .7667 1 .5899 1
2 Denver 23 18-6-4 .7143 3 .5826* 2
3 Wisconsin 22 16-7-4 .6667 5t .5709 3
4 St. Cloud st. 20 18-8-4 .6667 5t .5666 4
5t Bemidji St. 19 18-6-2 .7308 2 .5548 6
5t Boston College 19 15-8-2 .6400 9 .5499 7
7t Maine 16 14-9-3 .5962 14 .5454 9
7t Colorado College 16 17-10-3 .6167 11t .5555 5
9t Minnesota-Duluth 15 18-11-1 .6167 11t .5483 8
9t Vermont 15 13-9-4 .5769 17 .5388 12
11t North Dakota 14 13-10-5 .5536 21 .5390 11
11t Massachusetts 14 16-11-0 .5926 15 .5374 15
13 Ferris State 12 17-9-4 .6333 10 .5402 10
14 New Hampshire 11 13-10-4 .5556 20 .5385 13
15t Michigan State 10 17-10-5 .6094 13 .5375 14
15t Cornell 10 13-6-3 .6591 7 .5368 16
17t Yale 8 14-6-3 .6739 4 .5366 17
17t Union 8 15-7-6 .6429 8 .5325*18
19 Alaska 6 11-9-8 .5357 25t .5172 24
20 Michigan 5 16-13-1 .5500 22t .5240 19
21 Lake Superior 4 14-11-5 .5500 22t .5185 20
22t Minnesota 3 13-13-2 .5000 32t .5180 21
22t Northern Michigan 3 12-10-8 .5333 29 .5175 22
22t Boston University 3 11-11-3 .5000 32t .5175 23
25 Northeastern 0 13-12-1 .5192 31 .5171 25

Full details and comparisons can be seen at this www.collegehockeynews.com which is a great place to follow how much the PWR fluctuates from night to night.

With all of that said lets talk brackets. The four regionals are in Albany, NY; Worcester, Mass; Ft. Wayne, IN; and St. Paul, Minn. The selection committee worries about three things attendance, cutting down flights, and avoiding inter-conference match ups in the first round. Now with the last part said if a conference gets more than 5 teams into the tournament the no longer have to avoid the inter-conference match ups.

OK so based on the PWR and going off the 1 v 16 system our brackets look like this.

Ft. Wayne, IN
1. Miami vs 4. RIT ( Atlantic Hockey Associations champ )
2. Colorado College vs 3. Massachusetts

St. Paul, Minn
1. Denver vs 4. Cornell ( East Coast Athletic Conference champ )
2. Maine vs 3. North Dakota

Albany, NY
1. Wisconsin vs 4. New Hampshire
2. Boston College vs 3. Vermont

Worcester, Mass
1. St. Cloud State vs 4. Ferris State
2. Bemidji st. vs 3. Minnesota-Duluth

So first things first do we have any inter-conference match ups? answer is Yes Boston college vs Vermont. Our solution would be to switch Vermont and Minnesota-Duluth. Our next question is travel, can we cut down flights. Answer is yes by switching Denver and Wisconsin we cut down one flight and keep the integrity of the bracket. Our next question is attendance, Albany bracket looks fine with UNH and BC there. Ft. Wayne looks good with Miami there, St. Paul looks good with Wisconsin and North Dakota there, and Worcester mass looks good with Vermont there.

Therefor our new bracket looks like this.

Ft. Wayne, Ind
1. Miami vs 4. RIT
2. Colorado College vs 3. Massachusetts

St. Paul, Minn
1. Wisconsin vs 4. Cornell
2. Maine vs 3. North Dakota

Albany, Ny
1. Denver vs 4. New Hampshire
2. Boston College vs 3. Minnesota-Duluth

Worcester, Mass
1. St. Cloud State vs 4. Ferris st.
2. Bemidji st. vs 3. Vermont


Everything looks good with our new bracket, thanks for reading and see you back here next week for another rendition of bracketology!

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